Immigration and integration as ‘flash issues’: How the refugee crisis has altered electoral behavior in Europe (w/ Christian Stecker)

Abstract: The European refugee crisis has put immigration and integration on top of citizen issue priorities. Both issues touch upon emotionally charged questions of identity and cultural belongings and have, hence, the potential to transform the political landscape. In fact, the increased salience of immigration and integration has not only altered the way many Europeans think about these issues, it has also strongly affected their electoral behavior as evidenced by the recent electoral successes of populist radical right-wing parties (PRRP) in many European countries such as Austria, Germany, Italy, or Hungary. In a longitudinal analysis using ESS data, we show that in the wake of the refugee crisis anti-immigrant sentiments and the rejection of multiculturalism translate much more often into the election of PRRP. Put differently, the refugee crisis has mobilized previously dormant attitudes and channeled them into electoral politics. This general effect is, however, moderated by different factors at the individual and country level. At the individual level, feelings of distrust as well as a perceived lack of political efficacy can be expected to strengthen the effect of anti-immigrant sentiments on the vote for PRRP. At the country-level, the programmatic offers by established parties influence support for PRRP. While support for PRRP is generally stronger among immigration sceptics across all countries, it is particularly pronounced in countries where established parties have opened a representation gap by converging on moderately pro-immigration positions. Our paper thus illustrates how immigration and integration as ‘flash issues’ disrupt existing party loyalties and transform political competition in Europe.